Gold Prices and the Fundamentals
What causes the surging gold prices we see? How can some commodities soar to staggeringly high prices when the fundamentals are in the negative? This year gold reached $1007 an ounce, the highest price of gold since March of 2008. This means gold has risen 12% since April.
How has this happened? It certainly hasn’t been the fundamentals, which is what you would think would cause it. The demand for gold jewelry has dropped 22% since 2008 according to the World Gold Council, and the use of gold has dropped 21% in industrial processes. The only part of the gold market that has flourished was the speculation, which saw an increase of 46% earlier in the year.
Another reason is that gold is often considered to be a good hedge against inflation leading many to be attracted to this precious metal. But according to statistics listed by the Labor Department, the consumer price index for gold fell 2.1% in a single year. That is the opposite of inflation. So what exactly is being hedged against?
Because the Federal balance sheet is getting larger, the currency it is based on is losing it’s value. Deflation will only cause our currency to further lose it’s value, and inflation is not a pleasant option; it appears that either way things go, gold will benefit.
The US interest rates are low which is also a large factor when it comes to supporting gold. Consider the London interbank dollar rate (which is the method used by banks to charge other banks for loans) that has fallen to an unprecedented low of 0.314%, meaning it is down from 4.8% in October of last year. Unlike bonds, gold does not earn interest, which means there is an opportunity cost associated with having gold. But with the dollar worth as little as it is now that opportunity cost is rendered insignificant.
What this means is that the fundamentals have absolutely nothing to do with the high price of gold; it is dependent solely upon financial speculation. This means that there is absolutely no way to know what is going to happen to the price of gold in the future.
Are you interested in finding out about gold for dummies? If so, please visit my website Current Gold Value.
categories: gold,investing,economy,politics,gold coins
No comments yet.
Leave a comment
